Ok I am using wikipedia for this, so my sources for everything are from there. However, I will put Pascal to shame through this faith calculator.
I will be working on the (false) assumption that every person has the same capacity for correct reasoning. However, hopefully this false assumption can be balanced out through deducting points for believers of certain faiths from idiot countries, such as South Africa, England, the Koreas and the United States.
Since various religions propose equally infinite rewards, which are exclusive of each other, I am going to have to consider any reward that is infinite to be 'x', as otherwise this is incalculable.
"As of late 2006, the world population reached 6.5 billion."
Christianity"With an estimated 2.1 billion adherents in 2001, Christianity is the
world's largest religion.
[3] It is the predominant religion in the
Americas,
Europe,
Philippine Islands,
Oceania, and large parts of
Africa. It is also growing rapidly in Asia, particularly in
China and
South Korea. It has also increased in popularity in
Northern Africa.
[4]"
"Most Christians believe that
salvation from "
sin and
death" is available through faith in Jesus as
saviour because of his
atoning sacrifice on the cross which paid for sins. Reception of salvation is related to
justification and usually understood as the activity of unmerited
Divine grace.
[18]"
Thus, the percentage of people who believe in christianity is 32.3% (2.1/6.5 for the less mathmatically/logically inclined). The reward I will have to consider as 'x'. However, there are damning statistics that work against this view.
Southern AfricaChristianity in South Africa
79.7%
35,342,330
East AsiaChristianity in Korea, South30%
15,380,246
North AmericaChristianity in the United States80%
236,557,785
Western EuropeChristianity in the United Kingdom
71.6%
43,276,114
The countries listed above all show signs of completely defective rationality systems, and as such work against the statistics. As such I will tally their collective population belief. This amounts to 330, 556, 475. In order to correct the original problem I had regarding the false assumption of equal rationality, I will subtract this total from the original number, giving me about 1.77 billion believers, of an acceptable rational standard. This amounts to 27.23% of the world population.
Now, this means that the figure, adjusted to suit standards of rationality, means that christianity has a (rational) probability of .2723. The rewards from adopting such a belief amount to x, working on the assumption there is an eternal life. The loss amounts to about 0.5, from the assumption that there is no afterlife, as approximately half the fun of life (excessive alcohol consumption, sexing and other activities avoided by your regular jesus lover).
So working this out on the assumption there is a christian afterlife, we have a value of .2723x, where x is equal to infinite reward, exclusive to those who give their faith towards the dude with the beard and the seemingly good moral messages. Working this out on the assumption that there is no afterlife, christians get a life value of 0.5/1. Thus, Christianity results in a gain of .2723x or a loss of 0.5 life. This must then be taken into account on the further assumptions of other faiths, in which Christians do not receive such eternal rewards, and so further calculations are required.
Judaism"As of 2006, adherents of Judaism numbered around 14 million followers"
This results in a value of .0022x, or a loss of 0.5 life.
Islam"There are estimated to be 1.4 billion adherents, making Islam the
second-largest religion in the world.
[2] "
Ok I can't find this out on wikipedia, and I'm using a 56k computer, So I'm going to work on the assumption that Islamic people don't believe that Christians get salvation (Source : Rob). All the Islam countries are pretty cool, and lots of them have beards, so they all seem pretty rational. Thus, they receive a value of .2154x, and also a loss of 0.5 life on the assumption of a non afterlife. I will slightly adjust, this, rounding up to .25x, as they receive virgins upon arrival.
HinduismOk I found a graph on wiki with all of this on it, so no more need for calculations. Hinduism has 14%, however, unlike the above 3, they dont believe in an eternal reward. However, the wikipedia article is too long, so they can receive an X anyway, because it seems to have a similar equivalent. Thus, they receive a value of .14x. Also, they get an averaged loss of 0.5 life - lots of the believers seem to be living pretty shit lifes, and accepting of it as being their role for a previous bad life.
Non Belief16% of people have no religious belief. They receive a life value of 0.1. An x value of 0 - they seem pretty fucked if one of the other lottery tickets comes in.
TaLLYNow, to scientifically evaluate all faith. There are other religions, but this is taking too long on 56k, so I will exclude them.
Christianity - the x value here is .2723 on the assumption there is an afterlife. However, this must be balanced against the other beliefs in afterlifes that exclude Christians from entering. So, the .2723 must be divided by the sum of all x values to receive a value of relative chance of success. This is .2723/.6645, which gives - 0.4098. Thus, christianity has a .41 share of all x. Now, the non-religious view is 16%. As such, I will give the probability of there not being an afterlife a probability of .16, and so the x value must be multiplied by 0.84 to receive its final result. This gives a 34.42% chance of success.
Islam, using the same strat gives .25/.6645 = .3762x. Multiplied by .84 gives a 31.6% chance. Hinduism gets .14/.6645 = .21 x .84 = 17.7% chance.
Non-belief has no x value, we completely lose out here. we believe that we get one life and that we must make the most of it. However, our umbers are only 0.16 strong, and so we must accordingly use the methods of probability to determine we that we have a 0.16 chance of being right, and as such only get a 16% value method. This must further be halved, as all the other religions would receive a life value of 0.5 anyway, so our benefit falls to 0.08.
In the face of all of this scientific theory proving my belief to be irrational, how do I overcome such conclusive, damning evidence? By assuring myself that even taking out the believers from idiot countries, that my rationality is the best :)